Thought for the day – we are fried

With the latest negotiations to do something about climate change in Durban seemingly heading nowhere here is a useful graphic showing what the various commitments or potential proposals might actually mean for future temperature rises. Note that many of the worlds climate scientists actually believe 350 ppm to the upper limit at which a safe climate is likely to be preserved.  Note also those are average global temperatures, the increases in some areas, particularly over land will be much higher say 8 to 10C for a 4-5 increase in global average.

 

To summarise the graph. We’re fucked. Or at least the vast majority of people in Africa, The Middle East, Southern Europe, Asia, central America and the Southern USA are anyway. Real Estate in Greenland is looking a very attractive proposition. Not too near the coast mind.

Water water everywhere – an eyewitness account of Thailand’s floods

House Klog Pla Krai

The people of Klog Pla Krai are used to water, the village floods every year but this year the floods came two months early. Before the rice could be harvested and the preparations for the inundation could be made. We travelled with Climate Action Network Thailand to some of the affected communities to see first hand the work that environmental NGO Forest & Farming Foundation was doing to help the local people respond to the changing climate.

Pisanoluk is at the confluence of the rivers and has been flooding in the wet season for centuries. In recent years the flooding has become more severe. I was interested in finding out why. The relief centre at the library in Bangrakam was a hive of activity when we arrived. Volunteers and soldiers were loading  bottles of water and bags of food into trucks for distribution to those in need. Inside the hall surrounded by stacks of supplies a community meeting was underway to discuss the response to the unfolding crisis.

Bangrakam is the poster child of flood relief in Thailand. The government heavily promotes the “Bangrakam model” it is using in the area to illustrate that it is actively responding to the situation. The town receives a lot of media attention and NGOs are attracted to the town. The Bangrakam model is essentially the amalgamation of all government funding in attempt to avoid inter-agency conflicts. The focus of the model has been on engineering solutions in order to flush the water out of the area as quickly as possible. However this fails to solve the problems of the watershed as a whole, and merely pushes the problems elsewhere. Bangrakam’s fame attracts a large number of agencies in diverting the focus from other areas which are equally affected. The other villages we visited explained that they had been told to wait for relief funding because Bangrakam’s needs were greater, or that they wanted their own “model” so they could get as much help as Bangrakam.

In contrast to the governments top down approach the Forest & Farming Foundation is trying to enable the communities themselves to plan and execute their own response to the floods in order to provide for their immediate needs but also to build resilience within the community to ensure they are better adapted to deal with future flood events.  In the hall local people were discussing the way forward, both in terms of the immediate response and a plan for recovery but also mechanisms they can use to adapt to reduce the impact of such events in the future. As the meeting continued Tor and Jeab from the foundation brought us up to speed with the discussions. The immediate concerns were to avoid duplication in the distribution of aid by the numerous agencies working in the area and also the collection of reliable data to facilitate the provision of emergency funding. In order to establish those eligible to receive funding the government relies on aerial photos and the official household count neither of which are totally accurate. Local people on the ground will be able to verify entitlements.

Flooded Road

After lunch we took to a boat to see for ourselves the full extent of the flooding. We travelled up the swollen river past houses with tide marks on the walls illustrating the height the waters had reached. Some place were almost entirely submerged with just the apex of the roof and TV aerial protruding from the muddy waters.  We passed through a line of trees and bushes and I realised we were leaving the river and motoring over the submerged fields (1.5 to 2 meters below us). The brown waters stretched as far as the eye could see, the expanse so great that waves were being stirred up by the wind. We passed through another double line of trees and it was only after spotting the yellow sign with the arrow that I understood it was the road and not another river.  We reached the village of Klog Pla Krai. Every house submerged up to the roof, with boats tied up outside and the water nearing the tops of the electricity poles, yet the residents seemingly unperturbed hanging out and watching us sail by. The waters come every year so they simply have 2 floors one for the dry and one high up in the roof for when the rains come.

However this year the rains were different, they started two months early which meant that the floods arrived in July instead of September. This is bad for a number of reasons. During the flood residents are unable to earn an income and so have to support themselves for twice as long. All the preparations and planning is based around the flood lasting for 2 months not 4 and there is a lack of supplies. Most seriously of all, the rice crop from which the villagers derive the bulk of their income had not been harvested when the rains arrived. Pisunulok has a pretty extreme climate, flooding during the wet and very dry between November and March leaving only a narrow window suitable for rice cultivation. Rice has traditionally been cultivated from May to August and has been harvested just  before the rivers burst their banks.

This is the second time in living memory that the rains have come early the last time was in 2000 which was also followed by months of drought.  In order to adapt to this increased variability in weather patterns the community has started trials of traditional rice varieties which are adapted to flooding. Called “floating hair” rice it has much longer stalks than the commercial varieties that have largely replaced it, ensuring that the grains are not damaged by rising waters.

So what is the cause of these changing weather patterns? Is climate change involved? Climate scientist have always been cautious when attributing a particular weather event to global warming, it is very difficult to prove for a specific case particularly for precipitation events which are dependant on a greater number of variables. Recently scientist have changed tack, just this week Donald Wuebbles of the University of Illinois suggested that “There’s really no such thing as natural weather anymore. Anything that takes place today in the weather system has been affected by the changes we’ve made to the climate system”

Last year’s floods in Thailand were the worst in 50 years with 230 dead,  1.4m Ha agricultural land inundated and a million tonnes of rice destroyed. This year 93 have died in flash flooding and mudslides with over a million impacted and there is still a month of the wet season remaining.  A recent report by the Asian Development Bank on climate change in South East Asia indicated that increased flooding was to expected in a warmer world. That rainfall would increase particularly during La Nina years, that tropical storms would become more powerful and that individual events would become more intense. Weather patterns are also likely to become more variable with droughts also becoming an increasing feature.

However like most environmental problems there is not one single cause acting alone to exacerbate the flooding in Thailand. Rather there are a number of other factors which are as important as climate change in contributing to the problem.  The first of these is deforestation. The forest acts as a giant sponge soaking up the water and releasing it slowly into the rivers. As we saw for ourselves on the way to Chiang Mia huge swathes of forest have been cleared to grow maize and other crops in the northern water shed. This has massively increased the run off into the rivers and the accompanying erosion is silting up the dams reducing their ability to control the flood waters. Land clearance may also be contributing to the droughts during the dry season as the lower evapotranspiration creates less rain bearing clouds. Also adding to the floods is the construction boom underway in Thailand. Roads and buildings have a dramatically higher run off than fields or forests, as Thailand rapidly urbanises more and more water runs straight into the rivers. Lax planning controls mean that construction often blocks or diverts water courses further increasing the problem.  According to Tor the Thai government uses climate change as a convenient cover so it’s not required to deal with these environmental problems. By suggesting that climate change is the cause of the problem it obviates the need to question it’s role in driving land clearance and unrestrained urbanisation.  These factors are also ignored in the media commentary (at least the English language ones that I’ve seen) which focuses purely on government efforts (or the lack of) in providing engineering solutions.

Flooded orchard

The next village we visited was perhaps having it even harder than Bangrakam. Bangrakam floods every year whereas the last time Tambon Jom Thong flooded was in 1995. It was heartbreaking listening to the villagers describe how not only their homes and paddy fields were inundated but also their remaining source of income their orchard which was just coming to maturity after being replanted following the previous floods. Whilst green leaves remained on the trees, they told us they would die as the waters receded.  However it was also inspiring witnessing the resilience within the community that the project was helping to foster. The project aims to help the community by providing them with the tools to develop their own plans both in terms of immediate responses and longer term adaptations to limit the impact of future flood events. It also aims to develop capacity of the village by enhancing the skills and leadership of individuals. It was particularly heartening to see the leading role being played by women in helping the community to respond to the crisis.  Two of these women firstly described the damage to the village with the aid of a map they had prepared. Of the 147 houses in the village 130 had been flooded. They then explained some of the proposals they had come up with in response. The most immediate suggestion was establishing a nursery for vegetables which could be planted as soon as the waters receded providing a quick and much needed source of income.  A more  longer term suggestion was the construction of improved flood protection, however that would require significant funding and negotiation of beaurocratic hurdles all of which would take time. It was also mentioned that the construction of flood defences in a neighbouring area may have contributed to the floods in this village by diverting water from fields which flooded previously on to their crops. Which is a perfect example of the fact  that technical fixes to a problem often create new problems or simply shift the existing problem elsewhere. Flood defences can if not well planned just move the water more quickly somewhere else, and if they fail the consequences can be severe. So the villagers also proposed researching flood tolerant species which could be planted in their orchards which would be able to survive any future flood events. The community gave us such a warm welcome, the village head even came to meet us, and the passion with which they described their plans for the future makes me sure that working together they would be able to get through their current difficulties.

That evening we  experienced the full intensity of the rainfall for ourselves on the drive back to our hotel. It was unlike anything I have ever seen before and take it from me I’m from Scotland – I know my rain. It was like driving through a waterfall. The windscreen wipers were on fast but that didn’t make any difference, visibility was virtually zero. The road became a river and traffic slowed to a crawl.  Half and hour after it started the rain was gone leaving behind huge lakes of water.

The next day we visited a community that had been on the receiving end  of a similar intense storm which caused landslides and flash flooding.  The locals suggested that recent clearing of forested hillsides and their replanting with rubber plantations had contributed to the problem. It was great to see the activists from Forest & Farming Foundation in action and the techniques they used to try and get everyone participating.  They started by getting people to explain how their communities had been impacted and then worked together to produce a map showing this. Animated discussion ensued with people piping up to correct the cartography of those at the front.  For Onto the process was just beginning but after seeing what the Foundation has achieved in Tambon Jom Thong I have no doubt that given time they two will develop the skills and acquire the tools to help them mitigate the impact of future floods.

It was a privilege to be given such an insight into the affects that Thailand’s floods were having on communities. I am indebted to the Forest & Farming Foundation & CAN Thailand for  enabling it to happen and taking the time to share their experiences with us. Particular mention must go to May who drove with us from Bangkok and who’s tireless translations both cultural and linguistic brought everything alive for us. Without her the trip would not have been possible. I am also incredibly grateful to all the people in the villages we visited who made us feel so welcome despite being in the midst of a crisis.  The whole experience was incredibly moving. Seeing such strength and determination to continue in the face of so much destruction and devastation.  Witnessing such togetherness and resourcefulness shows the human capacity to adapt to a changing climate and I have no doubt that the communities we visited will grow stronger and more resilient. But they can only adapt so much. For the sake of all such communities which are vulnerable to climate change we all have a duty to ensure the climate we are creating is one which can be adapted to. At the moment we’re way off course so it’s time to get moving….

If you would like to make a donation to help the communities that we visited recover get in contact and I will send you the bank account details.

Farewell lunch with our hosts

Can it get any hotter? Climate change impacts on SE Asia

After spending the last few days in steamy Singapore, I can’t begin to imagine it 6C warmer but that’s the prediction, and that’s just the first of many severe impacts that can be expected in the region in the not too distant future.

South East Asia, our first destination will be hit hard by climate change.  In fact according to documents released by Wikileaks  Australian Intelligence believe  by 2030 it will be the region worst hit, “triggering a cascade of economic, social and political consequences”!!!  It’s reliance on agriculture, relative poverty and densely populated coastal areas make it especially  vulnerable to global warming.

Indeed the region has already begun to experience the first stages of climate change.  Mean temperature has increased and rainfall trended lower from 1960 – 2000 with less rain and less rainy days and sea levels have been rising 1-3 mm per year. There have also been more extreme weather events with heat waves, droughts floods and tropical cyclones all increasing in frequency. Things are only going to get worse. Continue reading

Journeys for Climate Justice

I attended the launch of Journeys for Climate Justice last night. This project aims to create alternative ways for people to offset their emissions through building partnerships with community organisations in the Asia Pacific.  Although you probably already know my feelings about carbon offsets the project that they are supporting is great. The Kelani Nadee Yatra project aims to develop youth leaders in climate change and sustainability through their participation in a journey down Sri Lanka’s sacred river. Eco-V will then support the youth ambassadors  for a year in implementing climate change projects in their own communities. A fantastic way to increase awareness  of climate change and also build resilience to the  challenges posed by a problem which will hit the country hard but is largely not of their making.  This is exactly the sort of project I was hoping to connect with during our own journey, but sadly I think Sri Lanka might just be a little hard to get to. The boat service to India has been suspended for years and it’s not exactly on the way to Scotland either.

I was going to ask if they had considered using a word other than offset to describe what they were doing. To me offsetting suggests counterbalancing, counteracting some sort of clearing of the ledger. But that’s not what’s happening. As soon as that plane takes off the CO2 is released and there’s no taking it back, it will be in the atmosphere for perhaps thousands of years. It would be great if such an innovative project could also begin to spread awareness that there are no free rides, there is no simple way of undoing emissions. But I realise that it is a very big ask of a small newly started not for profit to challenge the accepted social and economic wisdom of our age. So I will be supporting their projects not because they will counterbalance my emissions but because it is a great idea to support climate change awareness and adaptation initiatives in countries which will be severely impacted.

Climate activist on trial

Inspiring story of Tim DeChristopher, an American guy sick of the Bush administration’s pandering to the oil lobby deciding to take things into his own hands. He chose to disrupt an auction of oil and gas leases by bidding on them himself!!!!  He “bought” 22,500 acres and effectively halted drilling for oil. Despite the Obama administration declaring the auction illegal he’s the one up in court this week facing imprisonment .

Flood, Fires and Cyclones – “you ain’t seen nothing yet”

Those were the words of Ross Garnaut as he launched the first update of his climate change review, referring to the likely impacts of future growth of emissions on extreme weather events. He also suggested that we are already beginning to see an intensification of such events. This was the same theme for a recent Beyond Zero Emissions discussion group led by David Spratt at Melbourne Uni. Beginning the discussion on the causes of the recent floods and cyclone in Australia, the heat waves in Russia last year and Europe in 2003, the record high temperatures in Asia and the floods in Pakistan. He pointed out that climate scientists say you can’t blame a single weather event on global warming. However he suggested as NASA Scientist James Hansen does that isn’t the right question. If instead you posed the question “would these events have occurred if atmospheric carbon dioxide had remained at its pre-industrial level of 280 ppm? an appropriate answer in that case is “almost certainly not.” That answer, to the public, translates as “yes”, i.e., humans probably bear a responsibility for the extreme event.” Dr. Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, has gone further, arguing, “It’s not the right question to ask if this storm or that storm is due to global warming, or is it natural variability. Nowadays, there’s always an element of both.”

So looking at specific examples.

Continue reading

Sustainable Living Festival – part 2

A far more positive day at the Sustainable Living Festival. First off I fell in love…. with  a bicycle!!!! A bamboo bicycle to be specific, hand made in Melbourne from Australian grown bamboo by Cognitive Cycles. It just looks beautiful, the polished natural frame, contrasting with the other machined components.

I spent much of the rest of the day handing out the sexy leaflets we produced encouraging people to join their local climate action group. We had a very positive response and met up with some inspiring people.

The final session I attended was 100% Renewables hosted by Beyond Zero Emissions focusing on plans to move to zero emission energy generation. Matt Wright’s enthusiasm and passion is infectious and although I have heard the presentation on numerous occasions I was once again captivated. The Zero Carbon Australia plan is a fully costed plan to achieve zero emissions for stationary energy in 10 years.

Continue reading

The Net Impact is Greenwash

 So I picked up this flyer at the 500 Little Ideas/ World’s Biggest Green Drinks last night. I thought it must be a joke at first. After all you couldn’t have a sustainability event sponsored by Nestle, the same Nestle that aroused the ire of NGO’s for it aggressive marketing of baby formula in Africa over a number of decades or more recently contributed to the destruction of orang-utan habitat through its use of palm oil. Nor would you have a Low Carbon Growth plan conference supported by Truenergy which took out full page newspaper ads opposing the failed Emissions Trading Scheme – and not because it would have handed them billions in compensation – and more recently has forked out billions of dollars for NSW’s coal fired power stations. That’s like the Burmese Military funding a conference on Human Rights – hey they held some elections recently after all.

There is a word for what these companies are engaged in – greenwash. Sustainability is more than a token Social and Environmental Report and a bit of funding for a conference. Although cash is hard to come by these days sustainability practitioners run the risk of devaluing their profession and adding to the veneer of respectability for these companies unless they exercise greater care in the selection of sources of finance. Selling your soul to the devil is after all never an equal bargain.

Tackling Climate Change…. Or not

Very uninspiring session on climate change at Melbourne’s Sustainable Living Session this evening. The key message seemed to be climate change is bad, it will cause events similar to the storms, cyclones and fires that have been sweeping Australia recently. However all you can do is sit back and let your council introduce energy efficiency measures, your government support limited adaptation in “developing” countries and wait for a carbon price and the market will sort out the rest . No exhortations to build the mass social movement which is required to drive the political change which is necessary to really tackle Climate Change. As usual it was left to the contributions from the floor to make the salient points.

Patrick from Beyond Zero Emissions suggesting that a price on carbon will just lead to greater investment in gas fired generation – not much use if we need to get to zero emissions in the next 10 years – and that other mechanisms are required to build the necessary renewable energy generation capacity. Whilst another speaker pointed out that the unregulated market was responsible for creating the global financial crisis and could hardly be relied on to solve the greatest market failure ever. After all just as you don’t solve crime by putting a price on murder neither should you solve an ethical issue such as carbon emissions by putting a price on them.

Much more exciting was the 500 Little Ideas/ World’s Biggest Green Drinks at Donkey Wheel. Firstly there was beer, which always helps. But also some really inspiring people with some great ideas. The winner was Beyond Zero Emissions – the boys get around (and they are mainly boys unfortunately) with an idea to bring their Zero Carbon Australia Plan to a wider audience, a concept very dear to my heart. So every success with that and all the other fantastic projects. A reaffirmation of the power of humanity after a rather lacklustre start to the evening.

Flood levy – Climate fail (again)

So the Australian governments response to an extreme weather event is to slash funding to tackle climate change – which will lead to more extreme weather events!!!! Go figure!!! Although no single weather event can be attributed to climate change there are suggestions that recent warming may have  contributed to the severity of the current La Nina, and enhanced the amount of water able to fall as rain. There is no doubt that events like the recent floods across Australia, Brazil and Pakistan will become more common. What are now 100 year events will be become 25 or 30 year events and so on. Indeed it is already happening in Australia in the 1980s, there were never more than 27 extreme weather events per year and often less than 10. Since 1998 there have never been less than 28 and regularly more than 40.  Which is why the governments decision to pay for the reconstruction after the recent floods by cutting millions from various (already inadequate) schemes aimed at fighting climate change is insane. Whilst the scrapping of the cash for clunkers scheme is no loss as it had no environmental value, nor did the scheme for research into green cars – there is no such thing. The worst aspect are the reduction in funding for utility scale solar plants and rebates for solar hot water. Solar hot water systems are the most efficient users of solar energy currently available. When used to replace electric water systems they offer significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions and are particularly suited to the Australian climate. They offer a cheap and easily achievable method of mitigating emissions, there uptake should be promoted not cut.

Investment in large scale solar in Australia has been woeful – there are currently no plants in operation – lagging far behind Spain, Portugal or the US despite our abundance of available solar radiation (just 0.5% of Australia’s land area could supply all of its current electricity needs using current solar thermal technologies) The government explains that a carbon price will create the necessary investment in solar energy. It won’t. Not only is a carbon price still a long way away and the need for action urgent. But unless it is set ridiculously high a carbon price will simply favour the cheapest low carbon or renewable sources  natural gas and wind. The experience in Europe which has had a price on carbon for a number of years has shown that investment in solar has been driven by direct government intervention, in the case of Spain and Portugal a feed in tariff.

Needless to say the massive subsidies for the coal, oil and gas industries remain intact, under Gillard’s plan nor are these industries being forced to pay for the reconstruction despite the billions they earn. The final irony of the governments response is that it’s the ordinary punters like you and I that are being slugged to pay for the reconstruction of the railways for the coal exporters who may have created the problem in the first place.

The floods that have devastated large parts of Australia serve as a chilling vision of a potential future in a climate changed world. A fitting legacy for the tragic loss of life would be the establishment of a fund to minimise the impact of future events and fund future reconstruction. Paid for through a tax on the mining, energy and other companies whose actions have made such events so much more likely.  There are a couple of petitions going round to register support for such a plan. Sign up here or here. But the most telling legacy must be real action on climate change otherwise  these events will be doomed to occur with increasing frequency.